Please click on the below link to download the FI Morning Grain Comments for 06/20/2018
Weather and crop conditions
- No changes to the forecast for the US Midwest.
- Rain will continue to fall across the Midwest through June 28. The Delta and southeastern states will also receive good rain through late June.
- Greatest rainfall will occur in Kansas, Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and southwestern portions of the Corn Belt.
- In late June through early July, a higher-pressure ridge will return across the middle of the United States, resulting in drier and warmer conditions. June 30-July 4 is when the models are putting the ridge in.
- Some rain is also still expected in West Texas through early next week.
- The Canada’s Prairies will dry down this week with above normal temperatures.
- North China Plain will additional rain June 20-22 aiding corn and soybeans. 90% of the winter wheat crop had been collected.
- France and Germany will dry down this week.
- Western Australia will see another chance for rain, but won’t occur until early next week.
- Drought will continue in Queensland and northern New South Wales through June 27.
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
SIGNIFICANT CORN AND SOYBEAN BELT PRECIPITATION EVENTS
WEST CORN BELT EAST CORN BELT
-Wed 85% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 1.75”
with a few 1.75-3.25”
bands; far south Il. to
west Ky. and also Mi.
to north Ohio driest
Wed-Fri 65% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”
with a few 2.0-4.0”
bands in central areas;
N.D. to Wisc. driest
Thu-Sat 90% cvg of 0.15-1.10”
and local amts to 2.0”
with a few 2.0-3.50”
bands; Mi. driest
Sat-Sun 15-30% daily cvg of
up to 0.75” and local
amts to 1.50” each day;
wettest south
Sun 25% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 1.50”;
wettest south
Mon 15% cvg of up to 0.20”
and locally more
Mon-Jun 27 70% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”;
wettest south
Jun 26-28 75% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”
Jun 28-30 10-25% daily cvg of
up to 0.50” and locally
more each day;
wettest north
Jun 29-Jul 1 15-35% daily cvg of
up to 0.50” and locally
more each day
Jul 1-3 60% cvg of up to 0.50”
and locally more
Jul 2-4 60% cvg of up to 0.40”
and locally more
U.S. DELTA/SOUTHEAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS
DELTA SOUTHEAST
Wed-Fri 85% cvg of up to 0.75” 80% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”; and local amts to 2.0”;
far north driest west and north wettest
Sat-Sun 35% cvg of up to 0.75” 10-25% daily cvg of
and local amts to 1.50”; up to 0.40” and locally
wettest north more each day
Mon-Jun 26 65% cvg of up to 0.75”
and local amts to 2.0”
Mon-Jun 29 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Jun 27-29 5-20% daily cvg of up
to 0.30” and locally
more each day
Jun 30-Jul 3 5-20% daily cvg of up 10-25% daily cvg of
to 0.30” and locally up to 0.50” and locally
more each day more each day
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR BRAZIL
-Wed 5-20% daily cvg of up to 0.35” and locally more
each day; east Bahia wettest
Thu-Sat 15% cvg of up to 0.75” and local amts to 1.50”;
far south wettest
Sun-Jun 26 15% cvg of up to 0.75” and local amts to 2.0”;
from Parana wettest
Jun 27-Jul 1 5-20% daily cvg of up to 0.30” and locally more
each day; wettest NE
Jul 2-4 15% cvg of up to 0.75” and locally more;
wettest south
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR ARGENTINA
Wed-Fri 15% cvg of up to 0.25” and local amts to 0.50”;
Entre Rios wettest
Sat 25% cvg of up to 0.40” and locally more;
Corrientes wettest
Sun-Jun 28 Up to 20% daily cvg of up to 0.25” and locally
more each day; some days may be dry
Jun 29-Jul 1 20% cvg of up to 0.60” and locally more;
wettest SE
Jul 2-3 Up to 20% daily cvg of up to 0.25” and locally
more each day
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Upcoming
TUESDAY, JUNE 19:
- Indonesia and several Mideast nations on holiday
- New Zealand dairy auction on Global Dairy Trade online market starts ~7am ET Tuesday (~noon London Tuesday, ~1am Wellington Wednesday)
- USDA milk production for May, 3pm
- International Grains Council conference in London, June 19-20. Speakers are from USDA, WTO, Olam Intl, Australia’s ABARES, Argentina’s Agroindustry Ministry, China National Grain and Oils Information Center, among others
- ABARES releases quarterly agricultural commodities report
- Sanderson Farms presents at Jefferies consumer conference
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 20:
- Argentina on holiday
- EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, output, 10:30am
- AmSpec, Intertek release their respective data on Malaysia June 1-20 palm oil exports, 11pm ET Tuesday (11am Kuala Lumpur Wednesday); SGS data during same period, 3am ET Wednesday (3pm local time Wednesday)
- Intl Grains Council conference, final day
THURSDAY, JUNE 21:
- USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, wheat, soy, cotton, 8:30am
- USDA red meat production data for May, 3pm
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
- EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
- Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
- Bloomberg weekly survey of analysts’ expectations on grain, sugar prices
FRIDAY, JUNE 22:
- USDA cold-storage report, cattle-on-feed figures for May, both at 3pm
- FranceAgriMer weekly updates on French crop conditions
- ICE Futures Europe commitments of traders weekly report on coffee, cocoa, sugar positions, ~1:30pm ET (~6:30pm London)
- CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
SATURDAY, JUNE 23:
- China scheduled to release May commodities trade data (final), including imports of palm oil, cotton, 2:30am ET (2:30pm Beijing)
Registrations
- Chicago wheat up 11
- Rough Rice down 18
Macros.
- USD is lower, WTI crude is higher, and gold lower.
Corn.
- CBOT corn turned lower but traders are settling down on trade tensions.
- US ethanol exports to China should hit a standstill. China will increase its taxes on US ethanol soon to 70%, consisting of a 25% import duty added to the already established 15% tax place in April and 30% general import tariff that existed since last year.
- Baltic Dry Index was down 46 points to 1373, or 3.24%.
- The US House may revote on the Farm Bill on June 22. Immigration is still a hot topic.
- South Africa’s CEC will update its corn crop estimate on Wednesday and traders are looking for 12.991 million tons, slightly above 12.909 million reported in May and compares to 16.82 million tons in 2017. Breakdown of a Reuters survey put white corn at 6.768 million tons and yellow at 6.223 million tons.
- A Bloomberg survey looks for US ethanol production to decrease to 1.046 million barrels from 1.053 million last week and stocks to decrease to 22.128 million from 22.174 million last week.
Export Developments
- South Korea’s MFG bought 138,000 tons of corn at $207.99/ton c&f for November arrival.
- South Korea bought a combined 1.5 million tons of corn so far in June. They are taking advantage of the lower prices.
- Brazil looks to sell corn out of reserves soon.
- China sold an estimated 44.7 million tons of corn out of reserves since April 12.
Soybean complex.
- Technical buying lifted the soybean complex slightly higher early but meal followed by soybeans, sold off after the day session open. Offshore values were leading the products higher.
- Traders saw huge volume on Tuesday, one of the craziest trading days in recent memory.
- Outside markets are rebounding with crude oil higher and stocks higher.
- China soybean stocks at ports are running at 8.63 million tons as of late last week, according to the CNGOIC, up 1.89 million tons from the previous week. June soybean imports are seen at 9.5 million tons, July at 9.0 million tons and August at 8.8 million tons. The CNGOIC also noted China may see a shortage on soybean supplies during Q4 from thinning SA availability.
- China September soybean futures decreased 8 yuan per ton or 0.2%, September meal down 12 or 0.4%, China soybean oil down 94 or 1.7% and China September palm down 86 or 1.8%.
- September China cash crush margins were last running at 75 cents, down 9 cents from the previous session, and compares to 36 cents last week and 1 cents higher a year ago.
- Rotterdam vegetable oils were 4-7 euros higher and SA soybean meal when delivered into Rotterdam were 1-6 euros higher, as of early morning CT time.
- September Malaysian palm was 1 lower and cash was down $1.25/ton.
- Cargo surveyor SGS reported June 1-20 Malaysian palm exports at 670,442 tons, down 74,867 tons or 10% from the same period a month ago and down 39,880 tons from the same period a year ago (6% decrease).
- AmSpec reported palm exports at 690,015 tons.
- Offshore values were leading the soybean oil about 76 points higher and soybean meal $3.10/short ton higher.
- Sunflower plantings are projected by APK-Inform to increase 4.9% in Ukraine and Russia sunflower plantings were estimated to increase 1.3% according to SovEcon. The oilseed crop may yield better crop returns over corn and wheat in 2018-19.
Export Developments
- China sold 77,782 tons of 2013 crop-year soybeans from state reserves, 25.4% of what was offered at an average price of 2995 yuan per ton ($462.18/ton). Sales to date total 270,106 tons.
- China plans to auction off 60,000 tons of soybean oil on June 22 using a base price of 5,000 yuan per ton.
- China plans to offer to sell 500,000 tons of soybeans and 50,000 tons of soybean oil from state reserves on June 27.
- Iran seeks 30,000 tons of sunflower oil on July 10.
- Iran seeks 30,000 tons of palm olein oils on July 10.
- Iran seeks 30,000 tons of soybean oil on August 1.
CBOT November soybean prices and volume
Source: Reuters and FI
Wheat.
- US wheat futures are seeing a technical rebound after settling sharply lower on Tuesday.
- UkrAgroConsult lowered its Russian wheat production to 70 million tons from 74 million, and left exports unchanged at 33 million tons (carry in stocks are high). SovEcon looks for Russia wheat exports to total 37 million tons, down from 40.9 million in 2017-18.
- Ukraine collected 610,000 tons of grain with an average yield of 3.17 tons per hectare. The Ukraine AgMin said grain exports so far this season total 38.6 million tons, down from 42.8 million tons a year ago.
- Yesterday Egypt bought 240,000 tons of Romanian wheat.
- Some of the dry pockets across the US southwestern states will see rain and top soil moisture should improve.
Export Developments.
- China sold 1,486 tons of imported wheat out of reserves or less than 0.1% of what was offered.
- Japan in a SBS import tender received no offers for 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley for arrival by November 30.
- Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley on June 27.
- Japan seeks 91,188 tons of milling wheat on June 21. Origins were open to Australia and US. No Canada.
- Taiwan seeks 95,350 tons of US wheat on June 26 for Aug/early Sep shipment, depending on origin.
- Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on June 26.
- Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on June 27.
- Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat on July 2 for Aug 1-Sep 30 shipment. Origins include Russian, Romania and/or Bulgaria.
- Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on July 3.
Rice/Other
- Iran seeks 50,000 tons of rice from Thailand on July 3.
AMcom062018