Daily Market Report – Apr 01, 2022

Yesterday, the EIA reported a +26 Bcf injection for the week ending Mar 25th, which came in right at market estimates. Storage levels were reported to be 1415 Bcf. We see this report being loose YoY. We estimate this report was ~3.2 Bcf/d loose vs LY (wx adjusted) as production returned and heightened levels of wind and solar kept power burns much lower than expected. If wind and solar generation were operating at normal levels, this report would have been closer to 1.2 Bcf/d tight vs LY (wx adjusted).

For this upcoming report, we are once again expecting net storage activity to turn back to a draw. This report should mark the last draw of the season based on current weather forecasts.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.39 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.95 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The drop in production today is suspect, especially because it’s the 1^st of the month, and 1^st of the season. We usually see some nomination issues during these times. We hope to see more clean numbers by Monday.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 82.5 Bcf today,  +0.68 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -5.71 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 26.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.3 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -15 Bcf today.

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