Daily Market Report – Apr 07, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is -30 Bcf (S/D -23, Flow -37). As weather transition over to summer we see a big discrepancy between the two models. This week we take an average of the two models, as we believe the S/D alone is not catching the full storage picture.

The current Bloomberg survey is -28 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -28 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is -30 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +28 (this seem’s very off)

Week 3 is +53

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 14^th) is 1420. [Last week was 1400]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3500. [Last week was 3550]

Today’s weather run was somewhat slight bullish with the GFS Ensemble adding GWHDDs in the 11-15 day period. Below is the 24Hr change, and the current forecast vs 10Yr normal.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.57 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.23 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production continues to struggle out the NE and SC this week.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 80.8 Bcf today,  +1.86 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.22 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 22.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.6 Bcf today. Nomination data shows Corpus Christie returning today, and Sabine receiving over 5 Bcf/d today. Freeports continues to take 70% as of Apr 5^th.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6 Bcf today.

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