Weather runs were slightly bullish overall from Friday’s 12Z run. Below is the change from Friday’s 12z which shows both models making the same directional move.
Here is a look the latest outlook, which shows the overall forecast hovering very close to the 10Y normal for the remainder of this week, but then moves higher going into this weekend.
Even though this weeks TDDs look to be near normal, there is still a lot of extreme weather expected around the country in the short-term. Here is a view of this week which shows lots of variable weather conditions across the country that should lead to some interesting demand swings.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.17 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.68 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We are starting to see a small recovering in Northweast production back to the 34 Bcf/d level. This is still 1.0-1.5 Bcf/d lower than the peak observed in late-Dec, but we are tracking in the right direction.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.1 Bcf today, -1.83 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.29 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 21 Bcf. Power burns remain elevated with nuke at a seasonal low with refueling/maintenance season. This should last atleast the next week before climbing back up.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +26 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Apr-11-2022.pdf