The EIA reported a +53 Bcf injection for week ending Apr 15th, which came in much higher than market estimates. The report showed levels reaching 1450 Bcf, which is 399 Bcf less than last year at this time and 285 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,667 Bcf. We estimate this report was ~0.4 Bcf/d loose vs LY (wx adjusted). This is quite opposite to the +15 Bcf injection we had the previous week, which we calculate to be 2.4 Bcf/d loose vs LY (wx adjusted).
Wild weather continues across the L48. Tonight, significant winter storm are expected to impact parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains with heavy snow and blizzard conditions.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.72 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.01 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Yesterday’s production levels were revised higher in late cycle nomination, and we suspect we will see the same late today.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.9 Bcf today, -1.47 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.91 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 16.8 Bcf. As we head deeper in to the spring we are reaching the lowest point of natgas consumption for the year.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.5 Bcf today. Late cycle nomination data pushed LNG deliveries lower yesterday as Cameron reduced its intake by 0.3-0.4 Bcf/d. Freeport is also expected to start T1 today after maintenance.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +34 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Apr-22-2022.pdf