The EIA reported a +40 Bcf injection for the week ending Apr 22th, which came in line with market estimates. This storage report takes total level to 1490 Bcf, which is 406 Bcf less than last year at this time and 305 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,667 Bcf. Overall, we estimate this +40 Bcf injection is ~0.4 Bcf/d loose vs last summer (wx adjusted), which is aligned with the previous week’s report. That being said, if we were to focus only on the injection and weather relationship in Q2 2021 then this number was about 1.44 Bcf/d looser (wx adjusted).
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.18 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We are already seeing Bakken production recover after dropping to 25% of normal levels earlier this week. Bakken production is expected to be 1.3 Bcf/d, which is 0.8 Bcf/d below normal levels. Northeast production is also higher today to above 34 Bcf/d.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74 Bcf today, -5.41 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.07 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 17.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.2 Bcf today. Freeport nomination data suggest the plant is ramping back up, while Cameron LNG is operating at 1.39 Bcf/d (or 0.6 below normal)
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +74 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Apr-29-2022.pdf