Daily Market Report – Aug 05, 2022

The EIA reported a +41 Bcf injection for the week ending July 15th, which came in higher than the market consensus and our final estimate of +37. Although this number was off the consensus, our flow model was very lined up with this level of injection. It was the SnD model that totally failed this past week.

This storage report takes the total level to 2457 Bcf, which is 268 Bcf less than last year at this time and 337 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,794 Bcf.

So after a very tight number last week, the market flips to loose number. Overall, we see this +41 Bcf injection being +1.5 Bcf/d loose vs the historical rolling 5-week period (wx adjusted). For the week, wind was operating at a higher level that normal and that helped the loose nature of this number.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  96.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.8 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 82.4 Bcf today,  -2.84 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.7 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 43.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.4 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +37 Bcf today.

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