Yesterday the EIA reported a +13 Bcf storage injection for week ending July 30. This report came in 5 Bcf below market consensus and 6 Bcf/d below above our estimate. It difficult to nail down the exact reason for this week’s miss by it’s likely related to the lower wind output. Salt had the largest weekly summer draw on record at -19 Bcf. So far in Q3 we have had salt caverns pull a total of 46 Bcf taking overall levels to 250 Bcf.
Weather volatility continued today with the two major models showing further diverging weather trends. After day 7, the GFS Ensemble continued to show more heat in the forecast while the Euro Ensemble cooled. The GFS Ensemble has had a warm bias for most of this summer; hence the heat shown in the forecast might be over stated at this point. Here is what the current forecast looks like after today’s 00z posting.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.05 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.18 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.7 Bcf today, +0.82 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.36 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 39.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.7 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +44 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-06-2021.pdf