US production has been quite stable since the start of summer. Daily production has hovered between 91-93 Bcf/d except for a few days when there were major forced majeures leading to production shut-ins.
Rigs have been growing but likely more focussed on oil wells in the Permian region. That being said, we should have seen a bump up in associated gas. That hasn’t been the case and it appears that the new wells being brought online are just enough to keep production flat. Below is a very interesting set of charts I found on twitter (from Skylar) that breaks out the rig count between public and private companies. As seen, the growth in the rig counts is mainly from private companies while public companies stick to their “capital discipline” mantra. The case can be made that the private company acreage is not as productive, but we don’t have any specific evidence around that.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.16 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.6 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 78.7 Bcf today, +0.8 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.43 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 41.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +42 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-10-2021.pdf