Yesterday the EIA reported a +49 Bcf storage injection for week ending Aug 6. This report came in a couple of Bcf higher than market consensus. The slight bearish number pushed prices well below $4, and tod the trend continues lower. This storage number continues to point to tight balances with it being approximately 4 Bcf/d tighter than last year (wx adjusted). The last 3 reports have been at a similar level.
Today, weather volatility continues today with the GFS Ensemble showing a big drop in CDDs for the 11-15 day period. The two models are now looking more aligned with the GFS Ensemble only slightly warmer throughout the 15 day window. Overall both models are still showing temps well above the 10Y normal.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.08 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.8 Bcf today, -3.77 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.07 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 40.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.9 Bcf today. Carmeron looks to ramping back up after train 1 was out for maintenance, and Sabine and Freeport are almost back to normal operational levels as well.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +34 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-13-2021.pdf