Natural gas trading lower this morning on the weather forecast turning slightly cooler over the weekend, and production remain strong. The GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble lost between 3-5 CDDs since Friday’s 12z report. Additionally, a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will bring heavy rainfall to Southern TX thru Tuesday keeping the CDDs lower.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 98.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.02 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The strong production over the weekend is adding to the market pressure today. GoM production is also slowing resuming with levels above 2.0 Bcf/d today.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 79.3 Bcf today, +4.89 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.47 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 37.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8 Bcf. The weak wind, specifically in Texas, starting late last week has been the one bullish fact.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +25 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Aug-15-2022.pdf