For week ending Aug 19th, the S/D storage model is point to a +59 Bcf injection and flow model is point to a +63 Bcf . This week we are leaning on the S/D for our final view of +59 Bcf. LY we injected +32 Bcf during the same week.
This is the results of our flow estimate.
The current Bloomberg survey is +60 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +58 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).
Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.
Week 1 is +59 [today’s report]
Week 2 is +65
Week 3 is +82
There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10th) is 3495. [Last week was 3450]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13th) is 1475. [no OI]
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 98.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.14 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.02 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 79.9 Bcf today, -0.28 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.77 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.3 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Aug-25-2022.pdf