The EIA reported a +60 Bcf injection for the week ending Aug 19th, which was right on target. We have not seen the report fall within the tight range of our SnD and flow model in sometime.
This storage report takes the total level to 2579 Bcf, which is 268 Bcf less than last year at this time and 353 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,932 Bcf.
Here are the few factors that moved the storage number last week:
1) -4.7F fewer CDDs on average over the week leading 6.1 Bcf/d of less burns.
2) lower Canadian imports with FM/maintenance on the Northern Borders pipeline, T-South, Great Lakes and GTN.
3) weak average wind generation of 28.4 aGWh (-4.6 aGWh WoW, -9.0 aGWh vs Expected).
We calculate the +60 Bcf injection being +1.3 Bcf/d loose YoY wx adjusted. [We compare this report to LY’s rolling 5-week regression centered around week #34]
For this reporting period, the wind generation level once again came in much below expected levels for this time of the year and at this level of installed capacity. For week ending Aug 19th, wind generators produced 28.4 GWh of power while we should have expected 37-38 GWh according to our math; hence the low wind generation added approximately 1.7 Bcf/d or 12 Bcf/week of power burns.
The takeaway is that if the wind was blowing normal then this report was actually quite loose. Normalizing the storage report for #weather and #wind suggests this report was +3.0 Bcf/d loose relative to LY.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 99.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.4 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.69 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 80.1 Bcf today, -1.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.3 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 41.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +53 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Aug-26-2022.pdf