We saw quite the bullish weather move over the weekend. The GFFS Ensemble pick up 24 CDDs, while the Euro Ensemble was higher by 10 CDDs. The two major models are closely aligned with the latest change, with both hovering above the 10Y normal. Below is the daily change in the forecast vs. Friday’s 12Z run.
Here is how the two models look at the regional level vs the 10Y normal.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 98.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.49 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production was quite strong with the Midcon showing some life this weekend.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 81.3 Bcf today, +1.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.78 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 41.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.4 Bcf today. LNG deliveries over the weekend were quite strong with Calcasieu Pass hitting a new delivery record of 1.73 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +56 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Aug-29-2022.pdf