Daily Market Report – Aug 30, 2022

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  98.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.77 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.96 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Bloomberg estimates had production jumping over 100 Bcf/d this past weekend, which we believe is a severe overstatement. The higher levels were primarily out of the Midcon. The raw scrape data does support a move higher for the Midcon. We think the outright peak production level is somewhere closer to 99.5 Bcf/d in our opinion.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 81.8 Bcf today,  -1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.8 Bcf today. Calcasieu Pass elevated deliveries have been offsetting the drop in Sabine deliveries.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.

For week ending Aug 26th, the S/D storage model is point to a +56 Bcf injection and flow model is point to a +65 Bcf .

Northeast storage continues to run quite low. The latest EIA report pings East storage at 598 Bcf (-61 vs LY, -91 vs 5Yr). Two of the largest Northeast storage facilities, DTI and TCO storage, are tracking well below normal. The lower Northeast production levels combined with no C2G switching capability is keeping gas from getting to storage this summer.

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.