Today’s 00z run showed fewer CDDs vs Friday’s 12Z run.
With the latest change there is quite the disconnected between the Euro Ensemble and GFS Ensemble past this week. The GFS Ensemble continues to trend on the warmer side despite a big bearish change between yesterday and today’s run. That being said, most of the 15 day forecast trends well above the 10Y normal.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 98.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.03 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Bloomberg restated daily production higher for all of last week (including this weekend). Today’s dataset has the first week of Aug averaging 98.5 Bcf/d.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 82.7 Bcf today, -0.19 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.06 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.4 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +45 Bcf today. The storage outlook moved higher over the weekend with the change in the daily production estimate.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-Aug-8-2022.pdf