Yesterday, the EIA reported at 58 Bcf injection taking storage levels to 3332 Bcf as of August 7th. Stocks are 608 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 443 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,889 Bcf.
The injection was well ahead of last year, and the 5Yr average. Salt showed an injection of 1 Bcf, which is not typical for this time of the year. The Salt storage facility scrape did confirm this injection and therefore was expected going into the number.
Prices initially reacted higher despite a slight bearish report, but quickly moved lower minutes after.
Our early view for next weeks report is 38 Bcf. The biggest moving piece last week was a power demand and LNG deliveries picking up. Production was flat on the week even with the TCO maintenance knocking out some Northeast production early in the week.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 85.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.63 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.81 Bcf/d to the 7D average. This entire week we have seen late-cycle noms add almost 1 Bcf/d back to daily estimates.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.5 Bcf today, -1.51 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 43.34 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 4.4 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.7 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-14-2020.pdf