For the storage report for week ending Aug 14, our estimates are pointing to a 40 Bcf injection. The S/D balances are tighter week-on-week, with both power consumption and LNG adding to total demand. The current Bloomberg survey sits at 43 Bcf.
Today, other than the EIA storage report we are expecting some details on LNG cargo cancellations for October. By the 20th of the month, Cheniere receives notice from contract holders on whether they will be lifting their cargo for two months out. The early rumors are zero cargoes being cancelled.
LNG deliveries jumped up with the start of August, but also continued to trend higher throughout the month. Today, LNG deliveries are lower with Cameron taking only 0.57 Bcf/d vs. 1.45 Bcf/d over the previous 7 days.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 85.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.2 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.58 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73.2 Bcf today, -0.41 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 3.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-20-2020.pdf