Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) has activated its Hurricane Response Team as Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura make their way into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Response Team is monitoring offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf as they evacuate platforms and rigs in response to the storms. Based on data reported from offshore operator submitted to BSEE yesterday at 11:30 CDT, here is the impacts to platforms, rigs and production:
The drop in production is confirmed by the pipeline nomination data and the Bloomberg GoM production tracker. The total drop in production in the Gulf region is about 2 Bcf/d since Friday. We expect this to start to recover by late week as both storms lose intensity and move onshore.
Here are the updated views of the storm trajectories as of 7am CDT.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 84.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.95 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.4 Bcf today, +0.6 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.64 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 40.74 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.7 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.3 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-24-2020.pdf