Marco’s path shifted dramatically since yesterday’s forecasts as it failed to make landfall and is now hanging out in the gulf. The NHC has the remnants of Marco moving westward before it redevelops into a tropical depression. Meanwhile Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a Hurricane late Wednesday to early Thursday.
In yesterday’s notice from the BSEE, they reported 1.523 mmbbl/d of oil shut-in, and 1.542 Bcf/d of natural gas. We expect this to climb in today’s report. As seen in the data model from the pipeline scrape from Bloomberg, the production is off about 2 Bcf/d from Friday’s close.
With production falling, so are deliveries to LNG plants. Namely Sabine and Cameron. Flows to Sabine Pass will be halved from 1.5 Bcf to 0.75 Bcf while Cameron will drop by -0.5 Bcf to 1.2 Bcf.
Posted on enelyst
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 83.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.56 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.31 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.3 Bcf today, -1.44 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.19 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 4.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-25-2020.pdf