Today the EIA will report natgas storage inventories for Aug 21st. We’re expected a 48 Bcf injection. The market consensus is 45. Last week, balances were looser with lighter power burns being the biggest moving part.
Hurricane Laura came ashore near Cameron, LA right at the TX-LA border around 1am EST has Cat 4 – 20ft surges and 150 mph winds. According to poweroutage.us, 410k customers are without power.
The damage assessment has not started yet, but refineries to LNG plants got hit with the hardest hurricane on record to pass directly over the region. As of this morning, both Cameron and Sabine remain in shut-down. In addition to the strong wind, the water surge could have a more last impact to these facilities.
Total LNG deliveries have dropped to 2.1 Bcf/d for the entire US. With no damage, we could see LNG volumes resume by the weekend.
Offshore production hit a bottom yesterday. Today’s pipeline nom shows production flat to yesterday.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 84.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.25 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77 Bcf today, +1.62 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.34 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 434 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 2.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-27-2020.pdf