Isaias was a fast moving storm that ripped across the East Coast. Isaias is no longer considered a tropical system as it moved into southeastern Canada on Tuesday night. National Hurricane Center now classifies Isaias as a post-tropical cyclone.
The storm overall was a bearish event for natgas markets as it knocked out power to over 3.6 million people by last night [1.2 million out in New Jersey and 814,000 out in New York]. Its not known how severe the damage is, but we should get more details today as damage is assessed.
For the storage report for week ending July 31, our estimates are pointing to a 29 Bcf injection. The S/D balances look very similar week-on-week, with only LNG deliveries changing considerably. LNG during the storage week dropped by 0.5 Bcf/d to average 3.1 Bcf/d. The current Bloomberg survey sits at 30 Bcf.
Data from the DTI, TCO (Columbia Gas) and SSE (Southern Star) continue to show injection. DTI is 73% full, TCO is 72% full, and SSE is 88% full. This week’s low DTI injections were noteworthy. As seen in the chart, the DTI storage levels are now within the 5Yr range.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 84.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.31 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.48 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We expect nominations to be revised later today to bring production higher.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 71.1 Bcf today, -1.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.66 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.94 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 4 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.9 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Aug-5-2020.pdf