Daily Market Report – August 9, 2022

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  97.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.2 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.24 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We see a big drop in production today from various regions, which indicates that today’s drop could be more related to various maintenance events. The drop was seen in the Permian (TX&NM), the NE, and the Rockies.

We also got some more information on the revision in production most vendors issued yesterday for the entire first week of the August. The revision took production 1 Bcf/d higher to average 98.5 Bcf/d, which is the highest we have seen since late-2021. The reason behind the jump had to do with the mis-reporting seen from the Mexican exports out of Southern-TX. The receipts by the TransPecos – Ojinaga-Encino and Comanche Trail – San Isidro border crossings are inputs for the TX production model, and with some revisions to that dataset we saw an impact to the overall TX production numbers. I believe this change makes sense overall.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 81.7 Bcf today,  -3.27 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.77 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 43.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.4 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.3 Bcf today.

For week ending Aug 5th, the S/D storage model is point to a +46 Bcf injection and flow model is point to a +45 Bcf . With the change in production for the first week, we see good agreement between the two models.

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