The EIA reported a +59 Bcf injection for week ending Nov 12th, which was close to the market consensus. The range of estimates was quite tight despite the reporting period including the Thanksgiving holiday.
The draw was quite strong relative to the same week in past years, but we recognize that it could have been much larger if we did not see the big jump in domestic production and strong Canadian imports during the reporting week.
In next week’s report we once again face impacts of the holiday, but warmer overall temps should lead to a lower draw. The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -39 Bcf today.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.09 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.9 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 83.1 Bcf today, +3.35 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -6.75 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 27.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12 Bcf today. Sabine jumped back higher in today’s nomination data.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.7 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-03-2021.pdf