Another wild shift in weather now takes the December outlook to one of the warmest on record. Over the weekend both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble lost another 25 HDDs taking the 15 days forecast well below the 10Y normal. The futures markets opened much lower on the weather shift taking prices well-below $4. The last time the prompt month traded at these levels was in mid-August.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.33 Bcf/d to the 7D average. After a weak start to the month, production is starting to reach levels that we saw at the end of November.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 90.4 Bcf today, +3.05 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.3 Bcf today. Today Sabine is nominated to hit 4.8 Bcf/d which would be a all-time record. This indicates that Train 6 is fully running.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -54 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-06-2021.pdf