Daily Market Report – Dec 07, 2021

Weather runs continue to be volatile with the Euro Ensemble adding back some HDDs in today’s 10z run. The Mountain and Pacific regions showed cooling the back end of the forecast, while the East coast got slightly warmer. Overall, December continues to look to be one of the warmest on record which has been quite bearish for natgas markets. As seen below (from Maxar), this December is expected to be the 2^nd warmest on record going back to 1950. The only other year that was warmer was 2015.

Source: Maxar on enelyst.com

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  96.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.46 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.13 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 104.3 Bcf today,  +10.12 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +16.85 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 40.7 Bcf. A blast of cool weather is expected to hit the L48 for the next few days after which temps drop below normal once again.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today. Freeport once again dropped to 1.3 Bcf/d, and Sabine lost 0.6 Bcf/d to 4.1 Bcf/d. We expect volatility out of Sabine T6 operations during the start-up process.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -53 Bcf today.

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