Overnight weather changes saw warming in the 6-10 day period (with a good deal of that warming occurring in the South Central). With the latest forecast we see a big drop in demand coming Friday as temps are expected to drop well below the 10Y normal through the rest of the forecast period. Yesterday looks to be the highest demand day until the holiday period. Total gas consumption hit 108 Bcf/d yesterday, and today we are expecting 102 Bcf/d. Approximately 60% of the total consumption today will come from ResComm category, while power only makes up 30%.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.24 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average. This is a big drop from the levels we have been seeing since the weekend, hence we believe today’s level will be revised higher in later nomination cycles. This has been the ongoing trend the last few weeks.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 102 Bcf today, -6.11 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +11.41 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 39.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.7 Bcf today. Freeport volumes climbed back up in today’s nomination cycled.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -53 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-08-2021.pdf