The EIA reported a +59 Bcf injection for the week ending Dec 3rd, which was repeat from last week. That does not happen to often. The regional storage estimates were quite different week-on-week, but the repeat at the national level was pure coincidence. The fundamental components looked to have canceled each out perfectly. Relative to last week, this past reporting periods’s higher production was offset by higher LNG/Mexico exports. Additionally the lower rescomm demand with fewer HDDs during that week was offset by strong natgas power burns due to the lower wind.
Today’s weather move confirmed the cooling trend in the 6-10 day we saw yesterday. The GFS Ensemble added 7 HDDs, while the Euro Ensemble added 3.5 HDDs. With that, the overall 15D weather forecast is still well below the 10Y normal for the next 10 days.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.5 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We saw some big drops in production from the Midcon and TX today. We expect a revision in later nom cycles to get overall production back above 96 Bcf/d.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 91 Bcf today, -8.6 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.22 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.6 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -87 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-10-2021.pdf