The weekend weather shifts were mixed amongst the two major models. The GFS Ensemble showed some cooling in the 6-10 day, while the Euro Ensemble was essentially flat to Friday’s 12z run. The current outlook shows the 1-5 period much warmer than the 10Y, after which both models track the 10Y normal.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.39 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.61 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 94.6 Bcf today, -1.44 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -4.74 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 34.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.4 Bcf today. All LNG facilities were strong over the weekend, with Sabine T6 and Freeport both up as well.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.5 Bcf today. Mexican exports usually dip going into xmas, hence we could see flows lower by >1 Bcf/d from current levels over the next couple of weeks.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -92 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-13-2021.pdf