There was a big change in the GFS Ensemble 00z run vs 24 hours ago. The GFS Ensemble warmed significantly in the 11-15 day period in the East half of the country, while the West (Mountain & West) cooled.
With the latest forecast, both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble are showing a similar trajectory where we have warmth the next week and then more normal after that.
Today’s Fundamentals
Note: There looks to be an error in today’s S/D. It appears that a interstate pipeline that cross from TX up into the NE is reporting the pipeline nomination data correctly; hence both production and demand data has been impacted across TX, the Midcon, and the Northeast. This will likely be revised in later reporting cycles.
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 92.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -3.27 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.82 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 90.4 Bcf today, -5.68 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -6.21 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 32.4 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.6 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -91 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-14-2021.pdf