Both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble showed a similar changes at the national level this morning. The 24Hr change shows slight warming in the 6-10 day period, but more cool weather coming in at the tail end of the forecast. The chart below shows the day by day TDD change vs yesterday’s 00z run.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.61 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.06 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Yesterday’s early nomination data rebounded to 96+ Bcf/d which is more inline with the levels we have been seeing. We expected today’s production levels to also be revised higher.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 86.6 Bcf today, -6.4 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.8 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 28 Bcf. The next few days (including today) are much than normal and therefore we should see consumption slide quite a bit. That being said, starting this week we see HDD pick up back to normal levels.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.6 Bcf today. Freeport is running at 50%, while Sabine is much lower as well. The volatility at these two facilities continue.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.9 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -91 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-15-2021.pdf