The EIA reported a -88 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Dec 10th, which was mainly inline with market estimates. Most major vendors and surveys were calling for 88-92 Bcf. For next week’s report, the warm weather is indicating a low storage draw which should take storage balances above the 5Yr average for the first time since mid-April.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.36 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.18 Bcf/d to the 7D average. According to Criterion Research, TETCO published some bad flow data last night, leading to some vendors reporting a massive jump in production. We had made some manual adjustments to today’s production number to correct for the issues.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 91.6 Bcf today, +4.91 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.71 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 32.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.6 Bcf today. Freeport feedgas levels are back at capacity. The coincidental peak level of all the major facilities takes deliveries to 13 Bcf/d. Today’s nomination get us very close to that level, with only Cameron and Corpus Christie operating slight lower than max observed.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3.7 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -58 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-17-2021.pdf