Both weather models posted some big changes overnight and looks like price has reacted lower. The latest 00z GFS Ensemble showed 9 fewer HDDs, while the Euro Ensemble showed 14 fewer HDDs. The biggest changes were in the 6-10 day range which now takes that timeframe significantly below the 10Y normal.
This week there is a wide range of storage estimates. We are estimating an 8 Bcf draw from our S/D model. The flow model shows a slight larger draw. The storage facilities that show a weekly draw all pointed to small draws. All the facilities look to be following their typical withdrawal cycle as we enter December.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.26 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.49 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 95.9 Bcf today, +2.98 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +13.82 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 294 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 37.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.3 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.4 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-01-2020.pdf