Daily Market Report – December 03, 2020

Today’s weather was once again bearish as the cold shot in mid-December did not show up in the overnight rights. Both the Euro and GFS Ensembles pointed to warming in the back end of the forecast. Yesterday, there was chatter of a major cold spell that could show up in late-December. The Northeast and Midwest regions is where most of the warming showed up which is translating into lower demand. Nat gas prices are off big this morning back to the lows set on Nov 19^th.

The charts below show how the total demand degree days changed over the last 24 hours in both the GFS and Euro Ensembles.

Today’s number release is expected to be volatile. We are in the midst of transition between injection and withdrawal still, and we are also deal with the impacts of the Thanksgiving holiday. Our forecast calls for -8  Bcf.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  90.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.41 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.93 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 97.7 Bcf today,  -2.17 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +7.11 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.84 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 38.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.5 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.                                                                                                                                                                                                   

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