Daily Market Report – December 11, 2020

Yesterday the EIA reported a 91 Bcf withdrawal for week ending December 4^th. This was well above analyst expectations which was in the mid-80s ballpark. Futures prices immediately jumped on the larger draw to settle the day 11c higher. Total working gas sits at 3848 Bcf, or 309 YoY and +260 vs. The 5Yr avg.

Next week we are expecting the first triple-digit draw of the season for week ending Dec 11^th. Our initial estimates point to 119 Bcf being pulled out of the ground. Supply was flat week on week, with domestic production being offset by net Canadian imports. The big change in the balances was the higher ResComm usage due to cooler temps and growing LNG exports.

Net the balance were tighter 4.5 Bcf/d week on week.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  91.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.11 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.22 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 87.7 Bcf today,  -3.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -10.15 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 25.54 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31.6 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.6 Bcf today.

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