Canadian imports have been on the rise with the cooler temps in the NE and Midwest.
Canadian imports have been important this year. They have kept overall supply higher than anticipated. Western Canada has had warm weather over the past couple of weeks leading to lower than normal natural gas consumption levels – hence there has been a strong push to export.
For December so far, Canadian imports have been up 1.2 Bcf/d YoY.
Nov – 4.6 Bcf/d
Dec – 5.8 Bcf/d
Platts put out an good note regarding Canada last week.
Canada gas producers expecting big year of growth in 2021
1) 14 producers in Canada which account for roughly 50% of production are increasing CAPEX 21% year on year
2) Combined producers guiding more than 580MMcf/d of annual growth, higher than the 500 MMcf/d S&P Global Platts is calling
3) Oil sands expected to grow 280,000 b/d, supporting regional gas demand growth of 150-200 MMcf/d.
So good chance we see some higher Canadian imports this coming summer when balances are tight.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.56 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 106.3 Bcf today, -3.5 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.74 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 44.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Dec-18-2020.pdf