Daily Market Report – Feb 03, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is -282 Bcf (S/D -282, Flow -272)

The current Bloomberg survey is -280 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -280 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is -285 [today’s report]

Week 2 is -200

Week 3 is -180

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1280. [Last week was 1440]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3600. [Last week was 3600]

Today’s weather run compared to yesterday’s 12z was bearish. The GFS Ensemble lost GWHDDs in the back end, while the Euro Ensemble was mainly neutral.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  89 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -4.22 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -6.53 Bcf/d to the 7D average. With the cooler temps we are seeing production cooler in the Midcon and out of Texas. We expect to see higher levels of freeze-offs this weekend from West Texas and the Midcon as temps remain cooler for a longer stretch.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 113.6 Bcf today,  +3.56 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.89 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 46.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.6 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 7.5 Bcf today.

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