The EIA reported a -268 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Jan 28th, which was well below the ~280 Bcf market consensus. The lower draw was better tracked by most flow models; hence it looks like most of us misfired on our S/D weekly balance.
Last reporting period was the coolest of the season. Total consumption did rise with temps dropping to the lowest weekly average of the season. As seen, cooler weather was planted over a good portion of the country leading to total gas consumption peaking.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 89 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.21 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -5.76 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Cooler temps look to move over the Permian this weekend and therefore we are expecting lower production out of the Gulf and Southwest until Tuesday.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 117.1 Bcf today, +2.72 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.7 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 51.7 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 8.2 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -228 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-04-2022.pdf