Daily Market Report – Feb 07, 2022

Weather took a bearish shift during Friday’s 12z run. The weekend runs stayed on course with the two major models showing some alignment. Below is the daily change from Friday’s 12z to today’s 00z run. The GFS Ensemble lost close to 5 GWHDDs overall, while the Euro Ensemble was flat overall. The less extreme weather sent prices lower on open today as we enter a less weather sensitive part of winter. The current 15 day forecast now takes us through Feb 21^st.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  91.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.19 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.24 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Produciton volumes have already started to recover from the freeze-off conditions set across Texas and the Midcon last week. Friday saw the biggest draw down in production as cooler temps swept into the South Central.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 109.5 Bcf today,  -4.08 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -4.66 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 45.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13 Bcf today. Calcasieu Pass took 0.25 Bcf/d on Saturday signalling the soon start-up of that terminal.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 7.8 Bcf today. Canadian imports remained strong since the start of the cold SC event last week.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -235 Bcf today.

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