Daily Market Report – Feb 09, 2022

Weather models continue to jump around. Today we see some day-on-day stability out of the GFS Ensemble, but a big warming trend in the Euro Ensemble. The Euro Ensemble lost a total of 12+ GWHDDs over the next 15 days, with most of that come off in the 2^nd week. This now pushes the Euro Ensemble outlook well below the 10Y normal except for a brief period around the 14^th and 15^th of the month.

Here is the latest forecast from the two models:

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.28 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +4.48 Bcf/d to the 7D average. At this point production is above the average seen during week ending Jan 28^th, i.e. before the cooler weather started to creep in to the South Central.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 99.4 Bcf today,  -6.46 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -16.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 37.1 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.3 Bcf today. Freeport operations back at normal levels today, while Sabine still lower due to some upstream pipe maintenance.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today. Canadian imports have treated from 8+ Bcf/d as L48 production has rebounded.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -235 Bcf today.

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