Daily Market Report – Feb 10, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is -227 Bcf (S/D -236, Flow -218). Last week, the EIA report came more in line with our flow model, and therefore today we take an average of our two models as our final number.

The current Bloomberg survey is -222 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -223 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is -225 [today’s report]

Week 2 is -200

Week 3 is -98

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1420. [Last week was 1280]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3600. [Last week was 3600]

Today’s weather run was once again bearish relative to 24H ago. The GFS Ensemble lost at total of 22 GWHDDs with a big move specifically in the 6-10 day range. This current run now bring the two models in good alignment up until Feb 18^th. Beyond that the Euro Ensemble is slightly more bearish.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.14 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +4.61 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 98 Bcf today,  -1.26 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -15.19 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 36.6 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.9 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today.

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