Daily Market Report – Feb 11, 2022

The EIA reported a -222 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Feb 4th, which was within the range of estimates. This week’s number help verify the previous week’s -268 draw which was quite bearish relative to expectations. The weather has changed drastically since the cold during week ending Feb 4^th. Most of the country is now at or above normal through the end of the month. With that change we have seen prices tumble below $4 as consumption drops and production quickly returns.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  96.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.91 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 61.8 Bcf today,  -34.56 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -47.3 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 32.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.7 Bcf today. Sabine deliveries remain low, while Freeport looks to have rebounded today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today. Net Canadian imports have been important this winter in buffering US supply when cooler weather knocked out production in key shale basins.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -206 Bcf today.

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