Weather is overall bearish from Friday’s 12Z run. The GFS Ensemble shifted the much warmer, specifically in the 6-10 day period, while the Euro Ensemble was much more neutral. The latest forecast shows the two major models aligned for the first week, after which the GFS Ensemble points to much warmer temps. Overall, both forecast are at the 10Y normal or warmer.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.46 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.24 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production has resumed fully in the SC, with the App basin coming along slowly. Cooler weather in the Northeast over the weekend kept prod lower in the region.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 113.7 Bcf today, -1.86 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +11.94 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 48.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.9 Bcf today. Sabine was lower once again today after recovering much of the weekend.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -194 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-14-2022.pdf