The weather run volatility continues today with the GFS Ensemble gaining on the backend of the forecast relative to the 24H ago. This latest forecast now fully aligns the forecast during the first half of the 15 day outlook, and also take both forecast above the 10Y normal for the last few days. The cooler risk of cooler weather is helping prop up price this morning.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.3 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.46 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The Northeast production is still suffering from freeze-offs that started right at the beginning of the year. There looks to be relief on the way with temps across the Eastern corridor warming up in the short-term. This sustained warmer-than-normal weather should help alleviate the freeze-offs and bring Northeast production 1.0-1.5 Bcf/d higher to above 35 Bcf/d. See the East forecast below vs. the 10Y.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 103.5 Bcf today, -9.18 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.44 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 42.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.9 Bcf today. Sabine deliveries have recovered, and Calcasieu Pass deliveries are now 0.38 Bcf/d. We expect the tanker at this facility to leave sometime this week now that there is enough LNG sitting at the terminal to fill the tanker.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -192 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-15-2022.pdf