The natgas markets are on the move higher again with the cooler weather returns in the forecast. The March contract is ~30c higher this morning with both the GFS Ensemble (+23 GWHDDs) and the Euro Ensemble (+20 GWHDDs) verifying cold in the last week of February. The chart below shows the 24H change in GWHDDs by day. Overall, the both models show temps coming in cooler than normal after the GD22.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production has come back quite strong in the South Central after dropping off the last few weeks due to freeze-offs. We expect to see a similar response out of the Northeast as temps turn warm this week.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 89.8 Bcf today, -14.8 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -14.29 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 32.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13 Bcf today. Calcasieu Pass hit a new record this morning with total deliveries exceeding 0.4 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -192 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-16-2022.pdf