Daily Market Report – Feb 17, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is -196 Bcf (S/D -192, Flow -200). The last 2 week, the EIA report came more in line with our flow model, and therefore today we take an average of our two models as our final number.

The current Bloomberg survey is -199 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -195 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is -200 [today’s report]

Week 2 is -125

Week 3 is -89

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1350. [Last week was 1420]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3600. [Last week was 3600]

Today’s weather run was once again bullish relative to 24H ago. The GFS Ensemble added at total of 23 GWHDDs with a big move specifically in the 6-10 and 11-15 day range. This current run now bring the two models in well above the 10Y normal past this week.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  96.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.08 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 88.1 Bcf today,  -1.32 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -15.3 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 23.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.1 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today.

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