The EIA reported a -190 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Feb 11th, which came in on the low end of the estimates range. After a warm start to winter, the new year has brought plenty of cool weather over key consumption and production regions. As a result, we have seen a very heavy drop in storage as seen in the chart below. With the latest moves in the short-range forecast this past week, the end of season storage is now once again heading towards a large deficit to LY and the 5Yr avg.
We have one more day of warmth in the East after which the cooler weather sweeping into the Plains, Midwest and South moves eastward towards Coast. Past this weekend the weather will go back above normal early next week in most areas. The latest GFS Ensemble removed some of the cooler weather set to hit in the first week of March. Now the GFS Ensemble is set to be right at the 10Y normal to start March, while the Euro Ensemble continues to point to a cooler start.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.28 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.48 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 102 Bcf today, +10.68 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.16 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 25.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 41.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -122 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-18-2022.pdf