The unease between Russia and Ukraine has pushed Germany to halting the certification of Nord Stream 2 this morning. We are seeing big moves in global energy prices and global stock markets as all sign point to escalating conflict this week.
Adding to the geopolitical tension that is spanning global energy markets is the steep volatility in weather runs again. Today’s morning weather run unwound some of the bullish weather moves we saw over the weekend. With that we are still expecting a cool end of Feb and now a moderate start to March. Over the 15 days both models are trending in the same direction with the GFS Ensemble being a few degrees cooler across the board.
Here are a few key headlines from NWS this morning:
Feb 21-22: The winter storm which has been impacting parts of the Plains and Midwest the past 1-2 days, will gradually wind down today. Additional heavy snow of more than 6 inches is possible near Lake Superior, with freezing rain accumulating to more than 0.25″ possible across parts of MI.
Feb 23-25: An expansive winter storm is expected to begin on Wednesday and spread heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the Southern Plains northeast into New England through Friday. This forecast will continue to evolve, but significant impacts appear likely
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.16 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.28 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 89.8 Bcf today, -6.85 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -10.47 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 23.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 31.4 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -122 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-22-2022.pdf