Today’s 00z weather runs continue to show fewer HDDs in the 6-10 period leading to a dramatic flip in the weather forecast from the weekend. The start of March is now expected to well above normal temps. This comes after a significant winter storm will impact the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley today into Thursday night then the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Thursday night into Friday. The latest model guidance suggests a 3-7″ snow for those regions.

Here is a view of the 24H TDD change (00z to 00z) by EIA storage region. As see the GFS Ensemble warmed more bringing it closer to the warmer-than-normal Euro Ensemble past this week.


Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  91.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.73 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.62 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The big drop in production today was a result of freezing temps impacting production from the Rockies to the Anadarko basin. We expect this to be short lived.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 98.2 Bcf today,  +6.79 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.35 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 23.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 40.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.4 Bcf today. Freeport still operating at 35% of normal levels after experiencing power issues over the weekend.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.6 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -122 Bcf today.

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