The changes in weather have been wild this week so far. Today’s 00z run was more tame with the GFS Ensemble adding a total of 5.5 HDDs mainly across the 6-10 day period, and the Euro Ensemble taking away 7 HDDs mainly on the front end of the forecast.
Other than weather impacting demand, there looks to be a major hit to production today. The Bloomberg NEF estimate for today suggests a total of 3.3 Bcf/d of production coming offline due to freeze-offs across various regions. The Northeast lost 0.7 Bcf/d, the Gulf lost 0.9 Bcf/d, the Rockies lost 0.9 Bcf/d, and the Midcon lost 1.1 Bcf/d. With cold and heavy snow blanketed across all these production regions, we feel this temporary loss in production is appropriate.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 87.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -3.33 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -4 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 0 Bcf today, -107.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -110.07 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 04 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 0 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.7 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-03-2021.pdf